Maybe in reading it you saw the flaw. Wouldn’t someone else doing it successfully PROVE it makes sense? That means it's objectively a good idea.

I have to remind myself constantly that there are opportunities at all stages and levels of competition. In fact, probably the easiest place to start a business is in an established space with competition. They’ve done a lot of the hard work already and the market is primed for this product.

What has to be adjusted is your picture of what winning looks like at each stage. Here is a rough breakdown of how I think about it (after, of course, I talk myself down from the “this will never work” ledge).

It’s wide open. Maybe people have been complaining about this for ages, maybe they had no idea this was possible. In any case, you are a market of one pioneering this new solution.

THE CHALLENGE: There are a lot of things a customer needs to know and believe before they’re ready for a purchase. You have to carry them that entire path.

Not only that, but IF you’re successful you’ll have competition right behind you and they get to benefit from all the education you did and all the mistakes you made.

THE OPPORTUNITY: You have the first mover advantages. You get a window with no competition to build brand recognition, economies of scale, and a moat around your customers before anyone enters the game.

THE WINNING STRATEGY: Differentiate around a solution. Success here comes from being able to effectively tell a compelling story around the problem and solution. 

METRIC TO TRACK: Awareness. It’s all about getting out there.

There are a couple of solutions, but it is early. This is usually the stage where an entrepreneur says “I’ve got an idea!” then gets bummed after doing some research and sees someone is already doing it. 

THE CHALLENGE: Someone is out there already doing it and has the first mover advantage. They get the badge of being “the innovator” and they have a head start. 

THE OPPORTUNITY: Good news. Either they’re not doing well, in which case there’s opportunity to do it better, OR they are doing well in which case consider the idea validated. These early brands are doing all the heavy lifting of educating the marketplace. Jump in and position yourself right next to them as the better option to the crowd they spent all that time and money gathering.

THE WINNING STRATEGY: Differentiate from your competition. Do it better. They’ve done the hard work of consumer education. You just need to see who is falling out of their funnel and why. What isn’t being met? Quality? Features? If their product is robust, go simple. If their product is luxury, go approachable. If their product is basic, go advanced. Provide an alternative.

METRIC TO TRACK: Conversion. Your battle is around choice, so measure how many people take a look and then choose you

If you’re at this stage and want to hear someone build through it, here’s one to listen to.

If you’ve never listened to this, do it now. A podcaster documents their journey building a business. It’s an all time favorite of mine.

Ok, there are several competitors out there all shouting about their features, their price, their quality. Let this one go, right? Wrong. Seeing a market that can support several companies is a positive. I once read that you just need to be better than the bottom third and you can build a profitable business. I can’t validate that but the point is true. 

THE CHALLENGE: It’s noisy and everyone seems to be touting an edge. You need to find a way through that. 

THE OPPORTUNITY: A larger market with more competitors entering probably indicates a growing market with a wide range of consumers. A market with an existing and growing appetite is easier to get started in than one just emerging.

THE WINNING STRATEGY: Differentiate around your customers and identity. Build a brand around who uses your version. Think of it this way- When there is only one, the choice is between solutions. When there are a few, the choice is between features. When there are many, the choice is about identity. They’re looking for a solution that says something about them. Not you.

Here is a post on how every generation picked up its own scoreboard for money, worth a read:

METRIC TO TRACK: Referrals. It’s about the community now and the signal for a strong community is how enthusiastic they are recruiting for you.

Finally. A flooded market. We’re out, right? Eh… maybe. Maybe not. Now the solution is a commodity and the problem has changed. The issue for consumers is no longer which is better or what does it say about me, but rather, how do I cut through all this noise? 

THE CHALLENGE: There are so many out there consumers can’t keep them straight. 

THE OPPORTUNITY: The market is huge, people are constantly looking for this. The work is no longer in the product, but rather in the curation. This is sort of related to community building but more specifically is on expertise and maybe you don’t even offer the solution. Your opportunity is in curating for your community the best, most relevant solution. You are differentiating among expertise.

THE WINNING STRATEGY: Differentiate around community. Success hinges on your ability to build and connect a community.

METRIC TO TRACK: Following/trust (remember the metrics for trust a few newsletters ago?)

If you’re in the flooded stage, we’ve got something for you.

I’m not big on growthy youtube… but Kallaway is something else. He’s extremely intentional and tactical and just seems to see the matrix.

The bottom line is, if you have an idea or are really passionate about a challenge, don’t let the stage of the market scare you off. Just make sure your value proposition fits with the stage and your strategy is sound.

Ok. I am now going to set this email to re-send to myself every 21 days. Have a great weekend. Bye. 

Chase… first the worst, second the best… Spenst

P.S. If you’re looking for help in any of these stages – be it market validation, product development, identifying your target following, or building a revenue strategy around your community – we would love to help. We bring a strategic, data driven approach to make the most of your time and resources.

Reach out.

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